100x Runner Research, v2
Robinhood Chain. Bangkok time (UTC+7). 5 Oct 2026, 15:10. Live paper book is OFF (stopped on your order).
Read this first
- New rule used: 100x from the first price, and at least $20k of buying happened at $2M+ (so you could sell there). No full-day hold needed.
- Count: 107 since July, 24 in the last 20 days (about 1 a day). About 2,000 coins launch a day, so the odds are about 1 in 2,000.
- You are right: "hit $300k in hour 1" is not a pattern. About 190 coins a day do that. Only 0.3% of them become runners.
- Real pattern 1, time: runners are slow. Middle runner needs 9.5 hours to be sellable at $2M. Only 13% get there in hour 1. 1 in 4 needs 2+ days.
- Real pattern 2, the $500k moment: about 6 coins a day first close above $500k. 27% of them later become sellable at $2M. Runners there had less churn (volume so far divided by market cap: 1.25 vs 1.57). Held in old and new weeks.
- GitHub 14+ days before launch: only 5 of 82 runners have it (6%). When a coin has it, 5 of 8 ran. Rare but strong.
- Seconds and minutes: no pattern can be proven yet. The minute data covers only 20 days, and about half the runners trade in pools that data does not map. Only 5 to 10 clean runners. Anything I "found" there would be noise.
- Single missing piece: clean minute data for July to September plus every pool of a token. Then about 100 runners instead of 10. Plan in section 5.
1. COUPONS and VRAX: what I meant
- Their first recorded trade was at about $1.3k market cap, lower than the normal $4k start.
- COUPONS traded in a plain pool, not a launchpad, so its first price was just a tiny first trade.
- They were real runners. Both had real buyers at $2M+ (COUPONS peak $10M, VRAX $88M). I was wrong to call them fakes. Only the "100x" number was inflated by the tiny first trade.
2. The 5 research rounds
Round 1: count and timing (runtrack hourly data, every RH coin that hit $500k)
- 107 runners since July, 24 in the last 20 days.
- Time from launch to sellable $2M: 10% within 1 h, 25% within 3 h, half within 9.5 h, 75% within 52 h, 90% within 8 days.
- Room left after the $500k close (middle runner): 8.5x at once, 7.6x after 1 h, 4.6x after 6 h, 2.9x after 1 day.
Round 2: the $500k moment (546 coins, every one that crossed, complete)
- 27% go on to sellable $2M. Old weeks 36%, new weeks 19% (the market cooled).
- LEAD Low churn: runners turned over less volume per market cap before $500k. Weak but same in both halves.
- TESTING Hot chain (many runners in the last 7 days): strong in new weeks, flat in old weeks.
- TESTING Launchpad: long.xyz 46% (n 67), pons 30% (n 275).
- KILLED Age at crossing, hours up, dip before, hour of day, copies of an earlier name: no edge.
- Buy every coin at its first $500k close, sell at 4x or at minus 50%: old weeks 1.49x per trade, new weeks 1.13x after costs. Small and fading, not a money printer.
Round 3: first seconds and minutes (minute data, 40k launches, 20 days)
- Only 5 to 10 clean runners. The "pattern" I first saw (low top holder share) came from missing wallet data. KILLED as an artifact.
- What is solid: runners did not have a bigger first minute frenzy than normal launches.
Round 4: first hours
- Most runners are built over hours to days, so the first hour is the start of the evidence, not the end.
- Holder counts exist for only 54 of 285 coins, so holder growth per hour is untested. This is a gap.
Round 5: who buys early (wallets that bought early in an earlier runner)
- 3+ such wallets in the first 10 min: 0.21% become runners vs 0.05% normal (4x). But that is still 96 coins a day. WEAK LEAD
- GitHub 14+ days: 6% of runners, 5 of 8 hit. LEAD Old website, old X, own token code: KILLED (worse).
3. If our approach is wrong
- Maybe coins are not the thing to study, people are. A few repeat teams, callers and groups may make most runners. Then track deployers, funders, caller wallets and Telegram groups, not coin traits.
- Maybe the money comes from off chain. 100x needs about $1M+ of new money. That money is moved by attention (fomo app trending, X, Telegram). We do not store the fomo trending list over time. That may be the missing signal.
- Maybe launch is the wrong moment. Runners take hours to days. A coin that keeps pulling new buyers for 6 to 24 hours tells more than its first minute.
- Maybe 100x is the wrong target. From the $500k moment, 27% reach 4x. A system on 4x to 10x may beat a hunt for 1 in 2,000.
- Maybe our data is the problem. Half the runners trade in pools the minute data does not map. Fix the data before judging any idea.
4. The 50 best ideas (ranked: value times how fast we can test it)
| # | Idea | Why it could work | Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Token level data fix: all pools, all quote coins in USD, non launchpad pools | Without it half the runners are invisible | have, needs work |
| 2 | Finish the July to September rebuild | About 100 runners instead of 10, enough to test minute patterns | running |
| 3 | New money per hour from first time buyers, hours 1 to 24 | A 100x needs $1M+ of fresh money; this measures it directly | need wallet swaps past 30 min |
| 4 | Buyer retention: share of hour 1 buyers still holding at 6 h and 24 h | Holders who stay mean less sell pressure | need balances |
| 5 | fomo app trending list, saved every minute | Where RH buyers find coins | missing, start saving now |
| 6 | Low churn at $500k (volume / market cap under 1.3) | Holders hold instead of flipping | have, lead |
| 7 | Learn on Solana pump.fun, test on RH | Thousands of $2M runners a month there | runtrack has 1,664 SOL coins |
| 8 | Deployer and funder history (CEX funded, repeat builder, known dev like the GMX deployer behind ZZZ) | Who built it | chain, needs work |
| 9 | GitHub 14+ days before launch | Real prep; 5 of 8 ran | have |
| 10 | Meta leader race: when a name wave forms (SI, VRAX), pick the copy with the most real buyers | Waves make many runners at once | have |
| 11 | Real people on X per 15 min for $TICKER, and its speed up | Attention brings money | twitterapi |
| 12 | Proven caller and trader wallets buying in hours 1 to 24 (only if they buy before they post) | They move followers' money | wallet files exist |
| 13 | Snipers and bundlers fully out while price holds | Clean float, no hidden sellers | chain |
| 14 | Underwater wallet map at decision time | Each underwater wallet sells on the way up | chain |
| 15 | Buy size shift from bot sizes to human round sizes | Retail arriving | have |
| 16 | Higher lows in hours 1 to 6 with falling sell volume | Sellers running out | have |
| 17 | Chain regime gate (recent runners, rotation.json) | Runners come in waves | have |
| 18 | Dev behaviour: no sells, adds LP, burns, claims fees into buybacks | Commitment | chain |
| 19 | Fresh capital vs recycled: buyers bridged in or funded from a CEX, vs funded by selling other RH coins | 100x needs new money, not rotation | chain |
| 20 | GMGN smart money and KOL feed (gstream since 3 Oct) | Their buys move price | 2 weeks needed |
| 21 | fomo thesis posts count per coin | Social proof inside the buying app | fomoscan |
| 22 | Stock catalysts for stock paired memes (earnings, launches, Robinhood news) | Outside news brings buyers | calendar |
| 23 | Lane leader for each stock | One meme per stock wins | have |
| 24 | Robinhood "added to assets" and Binance Alpha front runs | Listing brings buyers | study exists |
| 25 | Tier one accounts on X (Natan, long.xyz, Robinhood people) | Big reach | twitterapi |
| 26 | Telegram group real members and growth | Community size | missing |
| 27 | Hook with buybacks or holder rewards, measured live | Built in buy pressure | chain |
| 28 | US market hours timing (RH users are US retail) | Buyers awake | have |
| 29 | Launch crowding in the same hour | Attention split | have |
| 30 | Name words (tech and infra names 1.8x at launch) | Cheap first filter | have |
| 31 | Base then breakout: quiet range after the first pump, then volume | Second leg setup | have |
| 32 | Known rugger and dead coin buyer wallets | Kill filter | have |
| 33 | Kill filters: 777 suffix, template 98931e52, hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 | Near zero hit rates | have |
| 34 | Insider wallet clusters by funding graph | Hidden supply | chain |
| 35 | Early buyers who bought early in past runners, weighted by repeat wins and timing | Smart money, weak lead now | have |
| 36 | Profitable fomo traders' first buys on day 1 to 3 | They find runners | fomoscan |
| 37 | AI first read: makes sense, new, works (first read only) | Predicts who survives, not the pump | running |
| 38 | Demanded gap list (G1 to G40) | Fills a real need | have |
| 39 | Quote coin rising (stock or AI paired) | Market cap rises with the quote | have |
| 40 | Two sided market making present | Ready for bigger buyers | chain |
| 41 | Sellable depth over time | Your exit check | have |
| 42 | Website and docs quality (tech score) | Effort; tested weak so far | have |
| 43 | X claims checked on chain | Removes fake stories | have |
| 44 | Same team launching on other chains (Base, Solana) earlier | Experience | missing |
| 45 | Website traffic and app wallet connects | Real users | missing |
| 46 | Holder count with $100+ positions per hour | Real holders, not dust | chain |
| 47 | Lottery portfolio math: $100 on every coin passing a filter | If unpredictable, size many cheap tickets | have |
| 48 | Ride at $500k with low churn and hot chain (new weeks 1.56x, n 25) | Momentum | have, small n |
| 49 | Second chance: runners that reached $2M, dumped, then based | Known move durations | have |
| 50 | Counter test every idea on Solana before trusting it on RH | Protects against luck | have |
5. What I do next (live stays OFF)
- Data fix (ideas 1 and 2): token level, all pools, USD for every quote coin, wallet level buys for 72 h on coins above $100k.
- Rerun rounds 3 and 4 on about 100 runners, learn on old weeks, test on new weeks.
- Start saving the fomo trending list and X per 15 min now, because that history cannot be rebuilt later.
- Test the top 10 ideas, keep only those that hold in both halves, then a bulletproof paper run, then live.
6. Deep dive input (updated)
When it starts: when a coin first closes above $500k. About 6 coins a day. 27% of them become sellable at $2M. Read the launch facts at second 0 already (GitHub, site, X, code).
How much time: verdict within 3 hours (room drops from 8.5x to 7x). Then re-check at 6 h and 24 h, because most runners are built over hours to days.
Checklist, in order of proof:
- Sellable now: $40k+ trading per hour.
- Churn: volume so far divided by market cap under 1.3 (lead).
- Chain: are runners coming now? (rotation.json, runners in the last 7 days) (testing).
- GitHub work 14+ days before launch (rare, strong).
- Original or copy. If it is part of a name wave, is it the leader (most real buyers)?
- Fresh money: new buyers per hour still rising after hour 1? Hour 1 buyers still holding? (to test)
- Snipers and dev: out or quiet? Dev not selling? (to test)
- Early buyers who were early in past runners: 3+? (weak)
- X: real people per 15 min rising, tier one accounts? (to test)
- What it is in one sentence: makes sense, new, works. (helps survival, not the pump)
Verdict: record every line. No buy calls until a line beats random on new weeks.
Version 2, 5 Oct 2026 15:10 Bangkok. Replaces v1 (the GitHub only paper book is stopped). Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/hx/report.html